India’s military must prepare for climate change (2025)

Across the globe, geopolitical shifts in climate policy — marked by the US’s turn to isolationism and transactionalism, manifesting in tariffs and withdrawals from international institutions, alongside reduced clean-energy support from the UK and the EU — have created profound uncertainty and disruption. The EU’s recent Omnibus proposal, aimed at simplifying sustainability regulations, risks generating regulatory confusion and delaying crucial investments, weakening Europe’s competitiveness as China and Japan move towards stricter sustainability frameworks.

Such erratic policy shifts do more than disrupt economies — they erode international trust, complicating collective action at a time when unified climate leadership is urgently needed. Amid these turbulent changes, New Delhi finds itself uniquely positioned. Its relatively lower exposure to tariff-related disruptions and emerging global shifts in clean energy supply chains present significant opportunities — provided India invests aggressively in robust domestic manufacturing capacities.

India faces heightened vulnerability as global temperatures inch towards a projected rise of 2.4 to 3 degrees Celsius — far surpassing the Paris Agreement’s aspirational limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Traditionally, policy responses have emphasised mitigation — shifting to renewables, improving energy efficiency, decarbonising transport — while adaptation, crucial for coping with current risks, remains drastically underfunded, receiving merely five per cent of global climate finance.

Adaptation is vital. Flood defences, cyclone early-warning systems, crop diversification, and weather-resilient infrastructure are no longer optional; they are essential to deal with increasingly frequent disasters. The 2024 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report cites extreme weather as the leading medium-term risk facing individuals and businesses. India, according to an HSBC report, is among the most exposed.

Climate change has traditionally been seen through the lens of environmental degradation and economic damage, but its implications for national security have been overlooked. National security planners cannot afford complacency. Military power rests not just on technology and manpower but also on predictable environmental conditions. As climate stability erodes, India’s military readiness is threatened on multiple fronts.

These climate-related risks fall broadly into two categories — acute and chronic. Acute risks include sudden disasters, such as the devastating 2018 hurricane that hit Florida’s Tyndall Air Force Base, severely damaging 95 per cent of buildings and triggering $5 billion in repair costs — exceeding the damage from missile attacks in the Middle East over an entire decade. Similar risks threaten Indian military installations, impair personnel productivity through heat waves, and degrade the performance of military equipment.

Rising temperatures, for instance, could reduce the payload capacities of the Indian Air Force’s C-17 Globemaster III aircraft by nearly 30 per cent, a critical handicap during operational deployments. About two-thirds of 79 key US military installations are (or will be) vulnerable to flooding, according to a Pentagon report, altering strategic naval operations and affecting submarine warfare capabilities.

Chronic risks, though less dramatic, are equally destabilising. Declining crop yields fuel farmer distress, economic turmoil and social unrest. Water scarcity exacerbates geopolitical tensions over rivers such as the Indus and the Brahmaputra, raising prospects of diplomatic conflict or worse. Rising sea levels threaten mass migrations from vulnerable regions like Bangladesh, compounding humanitarian crises and geopolitical instability on India’s borders.

Addressing these multifaceted threats demands a comprehensive and proactive response. India’s national security must integrate climate resilience into its core strategy. There are several ways to do this.

First, climate adaptation planning must become integral to military operations, akin to the US Department of Defence’s Climate Adaptation Plan (2024–2027). Critical infrastructure must undergo rigorous climate-risk assessments, be regularly monitored and even systematically upgraded for resilience.

Second, building institutional capacity is critical. Establishing specialised units, such as a weather squadron within the military engineering services, could provide actionable climate insights to the armed forces. Incorporating climate considerations into military exercises and war games is equally necessary.

Third, India should bolster international collaboration, advocating strongly in global climate diplomacy for increased climate finance, technology transfers and regional disaster preparedness initiatives.

Climate change is not merely an environmental or economic issue — it is a national security imperative. India’s military preparedness, economic stability and regional peace depend on how effectively it adapts to an increasingly unpredictable future. Climate resilience must not become India’s missed strategic opportunity of the 21st century.

Osho is director, India Program, Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD). Alex is a policy analyst